Market Commentary - Aug 25th, 2023

CryptoAt the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $25,900 and Ethereum is trading at $1,650. Over the last week, crypto markets saw a relatively large sell off which saw Bitcoin fall by 7.33% in a single day, triggering the largest liquidation event since the collapse of FTX in November of last year. The move wiped out approximately $1 billion of long positions and came after weekly volatility reached one of its lowest points in history. A large move was expected for sometime, but the direction of the move was unclear. Following the crash, the Daily RSI, a measure of strength, was at its lowest point since the March 2020 COVID crash. Historically, a low RSI has provided investors with good buying opportunities for Bitcoin and other digital assets. The Daily RSI is still still trading in the oversold region and is showing early signs of recovery.With a drawdown of this size, investors typically have been known to panic and speculate on what can go wrong next. This time was no different, as investors began to speculate that Binance was selling Bitcoin for BNB to prevent a large DeFi loan from being liquidated. Although it's unclear as to whether this was being done by a user on the exchange or by Binance itself, sentiment towards the exchange has deteriorated. The BNB collateralized loan has been on people's radar for quite some time because of the size and that the loan originated from a Binance Smart Chain exploit. The price point at which the loan would begin to liquidate was approximately $220 per BNB. BNB reached a low of $203.5 per coin this week and the market has handled the liquidation relatively well for now.In other crypto news, the market is awaiting the decision on the GBTC lawsuit vs the SEC. The lawsuit aims to have the closed end Bitcoin fund convert into a spot based ETF. Based on the hearings back in March, the lawsuit is expected to be favourable towards Grayscale, although it has taken slightly longer than expected for the ruling to become public. Ideally, the ruling would be released before the next Bitcoin ETF decision deadline of September 1st, which is when the Bitwise application is due for comment. If there is no ruling before then, the market should expect a delayed decision for the 8 pending ETF applications. Something worth noting is that the SEC opened up a public comment period for the ARK Invest ETF, which saw a delayed decision on August 13th.The SEC appears to be open for discussion when it comes to Futures based Ethereum ETFs, which may be a signal that the SEC is warming up to crypto-based securities. In the past, applications for ETH futures based ETFs were withdrawn before a decision was made. This time around, a flurry of applications have come through, with some even including a combined BTC and ETH futures strategy. Time will tell what comes next, but it's becoming clear that the SEC has to find a way to satisfy the demand for crypto based ETFs.MacroIn the Macro environment, investors are becoming increasingly worried about a credit event, although it's unclear as to where this will come from. China has been an area of focus in this regard, especially since the economy posted deflationary month-over-month CPI numbers in July of -0.30%. Evergrande, a Chinese Real Estate Development company also filed for bankruptcy protection in the US on August 18th. If the Chinese economy continues to slow and show signs of weakness, it could drag the global economy down with it. China will likely continue to lower interest rates until it begins to see signs of a healthier economy.In North America, real estate continues to struggle as existing home sales in the US and Canada both fell by 2.2% and 0.7% respectively in July. Commercial real estate has also been an area of concern, with some US banks trying to sell their Commercial Bank loans. All eyes will be on the Fed September 20th, as they are set to make their next interest rate decision after no meeting was scheduled in August. It's expected that the Fed will begin to pause interest rate hikes while we wait to see what happens with inflation, although additional rate hikes have not been ruled out.Equities, Fixed Income, FX and CommoditiesEquitiesSince we last wrote, the S&P has appeared to top out around $4,630 and is now trading at $4,380. The Dow Jones has traded similarly and is hovering at $34,090. Nvidia has been the talk of the equity market with a strong earnings beat and current quarter revenue guidance of $16 billion +/- 2%. Regional banks have continued to show signs of weakness with KRE, the Regional Banking ETF trading down 10% on the month.Fixed Income, FX & CommoditiesTreasury yields came in higher this week as markets waited for the Jackson Hole Symposium, which saw no new updates. USD/CAD rates are currently trading right around 1.356 as Canadian Retail Sales Data came in below expectations this week. Crude prices remain close to monthly low, currently hovering right around $83 USD / barrel. Finally in precious metals, Gold and Silver are up 1% and 5.3% respectively on the week.News we've been readingOman's Bold Bitcoin Play: $1.1 Billion Investment On Bitcoin Mining Infrastructure: The middle eastern country is diversifying its economy and making a splash into Bitcoin mining. The project has been up for debate in the country since 2019 and got the go ahead from regulators in 2022.- link - @ForbesJPMorgan sees 'limited downside' for crypto markets over the near term: As a result of the unwinding in CME long positions, JPMorgan sees limited downside in crypto markets- link - @TheBlockARK Invest and 21Shares jointly apply for ether and bitcoin futures ETFs: The ETF will invest in BTC and ETH CME futures, a product that would be the first of its kind - link -@TheBlockBRICS set to abandon US Dollar for trade settlements; Doors for crypto adoption open: Although no official announcement has been made on which currency would be used to settle trade, it opens a possibility for crypto and stablecoins to be used. This comes after Iran, Argentina, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia were welcomed into the BRICS alliance starting in 2024 - link -@FXStreetThe fine printClickherefor the fine print.